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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No55c10,133$5,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,594.8216651.2%85 W · 81 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes45c7,741$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.031963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+206.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x600e…7aacbacked Yes46c7,296$3,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,327.46520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c3,300$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.96380%0 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked No60c1,317$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.91361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed No49c1,295$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.661580%12 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes41c1,278$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.210139.6%40 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No76c1,136$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.143060%18 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8545…ada5backed No59c793.26$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4535…4007backed No43c791.46$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes45c696.67$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.43955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+195%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed No58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-75.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes46c399.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18434634.7%120 W · 226 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No54c368.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6312748.8%62 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c367.53$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1935740.1%143 W · 214 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No48c352.03$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5218033.9%61 W · 119 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed No76c326.95$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.27683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c305$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0512042.5%51 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked No52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No52c290.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.652828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes51c231.64$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.82650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes55c225.96$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6619024.7%47 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9012138.8%47 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010926.6%29 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-26%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes54c166$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.621216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No56c142.74$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1436822%81 W · 287 L-27.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfcc…3163backed No54c140$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.61875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+42.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5db…9254backed No60c135$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes57c134.19$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.49850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c66…76cdbacked Yes46c131.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No49c130.08$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6870415.2%107 W · 597 L-110.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No41c127.05$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.112119%4 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-68.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No60c124$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.65234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e55…9a76backed No54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.24100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No55c109.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.672962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No58c105$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.912060%12 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…bf6cbacked Yes46c100.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf379…c1cabacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…39cebacked Yes53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+51.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No59c78.92$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.224334.9%15 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No54c78.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.154654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No60c76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2917930.7%55 W · 124 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1612548%60 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed No54c69.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.022759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No54c69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.024156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes45c65.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.291675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No52c62.47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9912322.8%28 W · 95 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.43234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes38c57.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.834656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes42c56.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick55cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No47c54.6$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.086048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2405…427bbacked Yes45c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed Yes52c50.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x118d…67a8backed No57c50.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.371040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a3…c6e8backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1119641.8%82 W · 114 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd2…c545backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0213847.1%65 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf8…b94abacked No56c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes47c46.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0815925.8%41 W · 118 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No56c44.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.635957.6%34 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed No44c44.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.67580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+164.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4612852.3%67 W · 61 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5916145.3%73 W · 88 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf15…91c5backed No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed No58c38.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.481957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes59c38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.429531.6%30 W · 65 L-10.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd4…b303backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No55c34.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6112034.2%41 W · 79 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…99e6backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f0…610cbacked No58c33.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.181675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+55.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf143…4ef2backed Yes52c32.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…08fabacked Yes44c31.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.611437.7%43 W · 71 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.37644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb451…467bbacked Yes53c29.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.671040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No50c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54250%21 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0265…4aadbacked No51c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf26c…d5c5backed No60c28.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.47944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9c…aa50backed No49c26.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x079c…363fbacked Yes46c25.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ec9…30e5backed Yes46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa40…4629backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.259247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c24.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.844156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6f…f28fbacked Yes46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed No53c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes53c20.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No55c20.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1711944.5%53 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed No51c20.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851650%8 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d70…e9b0backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…5a67backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ed…a8dabacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc723…664ebacked Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd356…963dbacked Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.33847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9629…ee15backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46b0…dcdebacked Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3008…3c76backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46540%26 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.