Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec8fa5960c3072651c2edd6c86bfb5281612a0cbb798f89be178d0014888f673
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 15c | 896$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…57e2backed Yes | 27c | 867.23$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 15c | 689.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…79e0backed Yes | 32c | 613.04$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 592$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600e…7aacbacked No | 71c | 546.05$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 153 | 22.9%35 W · 118 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 72c | 311.23$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 346 | 34.7%120 W · 226 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 292.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 190 | 24.7%47 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 236.93$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 357 | 40.1%143 W · 214 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 18c | 226$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…8371backed Yes | 24c | 206.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 31c | 119.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…4b4fbacked Yes | 16c | 103.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 29c | 86.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 28c | 85.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 76c | 83.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 80.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 281 | 34.2%96 W · 185 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed No | 78c | 63.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…91a4backed Yes | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 54.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…67a8backed No | 74c | 53.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 120 | 34.2%41 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…4d29backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 44.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 704 | 15.2%107 W · 597 L | -110.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 41c | 43.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 76c | 42.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 36.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 70c | 20.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a57…0358backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 75c | 18.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?this page
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?Yes won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 25–30%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 30–35%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.