Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 30–35%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5982f4c384c9f6d0ee15000434d8ad049e2a5682f8b2776ace69b2ae856e2318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 16c | 322.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 76.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 22c | 71.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 30–35%?this page
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?Yes won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 25–30%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?No won
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.