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Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b86…bd28backed Yes66c2,441$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a8…218ebacked Yes35c1,196$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18fe…7831backed Yes33c1,088$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+200%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No28c1,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.610633%35 W · 71 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00c…7883backed No33c999.79$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No24c956.39$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes67c858.09$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.1722834.6%79 W · 149 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No46c775.86$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.3315747.8%75 W · 82 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No34c704.44$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.5511334.5%39 W · 74 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da0…8d76backed Yes52c632.64$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes80c500$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c493.71$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.133447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7c…42bfbacked Yes32c438.43$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+215.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No31c419.06$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No26c400.74$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2441662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No32c299.49$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes68c279.39$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.23240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes64c276.9$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.622634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No28c272.82$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.312867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes31c272.03$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1211935.3%42 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes77c270.47$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.031957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes29c236.97$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.78520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No32c216.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.573265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c190$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.23467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No68c177.5$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.72040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes79c177.32$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.741136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes73c170$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c160$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes67c156.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.939129.7%27 W · 64 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No28c149.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.793666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c147$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4230313.9%42 W · 261 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3749…4094backed Yes39c128.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No67c120$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.52055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed No68c119.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No39c117.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.394163.4%26 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No58c107.62$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.841942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No54c107.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6531418.5%58 W · 256 L-30.3wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x676c…ce51backed No27c103.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab57…e05fbacked No70c103.09$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf607…afa9backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked No68c90$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes42c77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.054153.7%22 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c19…cd48backed No48c75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.723036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes68c74.62$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.887332.9%24 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No57c73.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No66c71.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.691050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.684358.1%25 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.454065%26 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed No67c64.61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No32c62.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.822263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No41c59.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.123161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No70c52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+47.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0621041.9%88 W · 122 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352560%15 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d9…30f2backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No32c46.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes68c43.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.915633.9%19 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No66c43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.382050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed Yes38c42.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No51c40.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3008…3c76backed Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa8…0c06backed No66c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc09b…38e2backed No69c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5a…3b9cbacked Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…9aeabacked Yes61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No62c36.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.281747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No68c36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…d8e3backed No45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed Yes79c31.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick77cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed Yes66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa66c…8460backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked No61c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.411136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8b…0c74backed Yes49c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes68c26.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes40c26.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.82560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+35.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.954967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes68c24.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes46c22.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.153542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No49c20.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.042240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ed…a8dabacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf534…5a56backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc02f…3bd2backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd89e…9c91backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.