Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b0581d921f30eba070e27caf1908dda9c15a1860f700034398c1e4057da7b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b6a…6bbfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,026$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…b03fbacked Yes | 30c | 894.7$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 28c | 573.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.06 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…0456backed Yes | 33c | 566.15$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 71c | 475$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 37c | 387.59$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 76c | 348.32$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 332.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 272.83$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 249.47$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 241.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 34c | 237.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 210$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 22c | 207.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 200.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 31c | 198.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 189.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 65c | 155$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 143.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 143$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 34c | 125.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 70c | 115.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 70c | 109.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 36c | 109$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 104$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 303 | 13.9%42 W · 261 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab97…2efbbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +364.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 91.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 314 | 18.5%58 W · 256 L | -30.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 71c | 84.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa055…12b7backed No | 61c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 31c | 79.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…3f05backed No | 69c | 67.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 66.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 35c | 62.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 68c | 52.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 49.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 48.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 69c | 46.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 27c | 42.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 70c | 42.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 68c | 42.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 37c | 40.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…b608backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 32.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 64c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…0e5ebacked No | 69c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…466abacked No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…f90bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…2e2dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 60c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…32b4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…0334backed No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?this page
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% or less in July?No won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?Yes won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.