Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 21.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3016ebe99232eb34c1d39533f68b6a8d8a7d76b7463ac48f01c888de9c236fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,295$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.42 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…212dbacked Yes | 17c | 953.42$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 18c | 806.43$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 305 | 23%70 W · 235 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 12c | 733.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 17c | 705.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 248 | 21.8%54 W · 194 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 589.87$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 11c | 550$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 21c | 538.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 534.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 148 | 27.7%41 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 4c | 508.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 473.87$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 4c | 439.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 320$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked No | 79c | 258.36$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 9c | 247.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 11c | 246.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 174 | 17.2%30 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 77c | 244.2$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 76c | 243$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 242.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 233.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 25c | 214.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 79c | 186.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 33c | 176.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 161.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 80c | 145$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…b1debacked Yes | 21c | 116.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 103.26$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 232 | 30.6%71 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 22.4%26 W · 90 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 67.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 51.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 48.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 24c | 43.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 43.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 34.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 34.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 31c | 33.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 71c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 21.5m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 21.5m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18.5m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 20m?Yes won
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.