Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a03d292177cc58c427348d7c087b1afe72ab27279a032cbfc214f93af88a6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked No | 66c | 2,400$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.45 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,531$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.74 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 4c | 1,221$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 174 | 17.2%30 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,065$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 28c | 899.2$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.22 | 305 | 23%70 W · 235 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…0f96backed Yes | 26c | 750$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 39c | 735.3$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 248 | 21.8%54 W · 194 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 72c | 600.1$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.38 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 503.4$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.54 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 8c | 440.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 29c | 350.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 235$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 31c | 226$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 220.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 61c | 214.02$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 20c | 213.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 203 | 34%69 W · 134 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 190$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 13c | 160.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…212dbacked Yes | 15c | 132.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 59c | 112$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 108.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…0a38backed No | 60c | 83.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…78e1backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 61.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…b1debacked No | 63c | 61.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 46.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 75c | 38.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…b3d1backed Yes | 45c | 38.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 29.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 62c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…4152backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 71cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -14.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18.5m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 21.5m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 20m?Yes won
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 21.5m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.