Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ralph Norman win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3492e5634136aa730dee5d619c5ef61a8e26b508b3edc5f2ff2dcdfddf16fc9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 27c | 2,189$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.19 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 63c | 1,966$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.19 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 9c | 1,889$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 1,236$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.96 | 164 | 31.7%52 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 19c | 996.59$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 74c | 614.26$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8e86backed Yes | 22c | 554.32$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 30c | 536.93$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 251 | 35.9%90 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 468.75$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 357 | 40.1%143 W · 214 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed Yes | 27c | 454$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 407.55$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 346 | 34.7%120 W · 226 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 371.25$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked No | 71c | 340.54$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 24c | 336.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 74c | 316$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 281$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 262.36$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…d5c5backed Yes | 24c | 217$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 109 | 26.6%29 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 76c | 137$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9427…c967backed Yes | 19c | 125.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 26c | 113.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 25c | 111.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 24c | 108.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 201 | 39.3%79 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 92.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 87.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 281 | 34.2%96 W · 185 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 480 | 36.3%174 W · 306 L | -37.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9720backed Yes | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 62cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 529 | 11.7%62 W · 467 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 24c | 63.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 54.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 161 | 45.3%73 W · 88 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 49.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 47.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 47.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 47.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 47.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 704 | 15.2%107 W · 597 L | -110.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 76c | 43.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 79c | 40.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…9b65backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed No | 73c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 62c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…4babbacked No | 73c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ralph Norman win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.