Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9215cfc9cb6ac927a36a22dced1e66aa4a8c2173a134320a79aabdcb66629d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 75c | 2,500$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 79c | 2,118$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.07 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 27c | 1,421$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.56 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 33c | 1,130$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.63 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 24c | 937.84$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 757.17$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.52 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c6…68d5backed Yes | 69c | 721.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 29c | 694$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.66 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 26c | 635.98$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.91 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 25c | 614.26$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 25c | 584.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 64c | 577$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes | 62c | 505$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 499.99$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…a239backed Yes | 71c | 486.32$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 24c | 485.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 75c | 423.15$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 14c | 345$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 77c | 341$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 72c | 277.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 26c | 257.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 236.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 216.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 378 | 22.2%84 W · 294 L | -28.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 29c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8e86backed No | 22c | 191.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 61c | 181.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 73c | 174.07$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 73c | 163.56$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 26c | 160$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 74c | 154.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +195%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 140.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 26c | 135.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 130$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 490 | 36.7%180 W · 310 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 70c | 129.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…ca9cbacked Yes | 78c | 127.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 25c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 69c | 111$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 28c | 110.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 173 | 52.6%91 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 71c | 101.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 37c | 94.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 26c | 70.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 25c | 60.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 61c | 59.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 50.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…10d8backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…c63cbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 70c | 49.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…735fbacked No | 55c | 48.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 78c | 47.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…d8b4backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…576abacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…febfbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…bd7fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…202bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…363fbacked Yes | 77c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 78c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?this page
- Will Ralph Norman win Charleston County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.