Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf816a0892ce07c209fbde7058bfbf7ff9cb0a6acafe10b82e9ec8c79df6ab3fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 37c | 1,367$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.6 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 49c | 714.22$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.75 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 6c | 205.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 191.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 58c | 157$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…7663backed Yes | 62c | 112.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 11c | 108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…231ebacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 59c | 78.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 56c | 70.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…40cabacked Yes | 71c | 68.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 41c | 67.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 60.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 36c | 59.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 38c | 51.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…5975backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 60c | 49.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 53c | 46.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 61c | 43.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 31c | 42.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 37.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 24.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 59c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…516bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.