TailMyPicks
Market

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,425 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c11,198$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.56474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+286.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes14c10,215$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.442810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes8c7,859$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.150%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes20c3,791$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.5214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No77c3,515$2,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes38c2,641$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.991833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes14c1,882$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes25c1,821$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.62352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes10c1,723$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.55568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,512$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes16c1,425$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.891315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-73.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c1,408$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.81370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c1,343$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.465345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No72c1,285$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes28c1,246$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c743$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes15c726.9$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.131010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-85.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes25c552.05$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.63333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes7c527.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes40c518.11$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.271729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+186.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No66c501.2$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes15c500$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No80c490$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c461.19$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.571050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes42c435.43$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No65c419.43$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes51c392.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c342.37$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.16944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes29c337.65$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.931145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes32c317.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c305.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.64563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes37c301.68$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+70.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc86…51c1backed Yes27c298.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b6…89a5backed No70c286.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes6c282.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.571323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c268.47$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.241457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c264$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.484723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes25c261.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe48…2ac2backed Yes40c259$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes46c257.3$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No71c251.59$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c59…8363backed Yes47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1c…db61backed Yes8c249.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc771…6f90backed No64c243.64$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+89.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c241.31$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.67837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c240$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.176933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5092…86c3backed Yes32c215$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f43…f942backed Yes7c208$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c205.79$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes47c203.45$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+62.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e27…7ae6backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes25c194.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.842718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd22…7b17backed No57c175.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0da4…eddebacked Yes30c149.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8673…4025backed Yes9c149.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.02728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-61.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No68c142.33$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc1…742bbacked No73c142.02$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.45825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No67c142$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…de8dbacked No67c126$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58c…d588backed Yes24c103.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+91.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x506b…b0febacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c2…73b2backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x536f…ca28backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No76c92.84$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.39933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes34c91.64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.022524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes45c80.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No74c78.6$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No60c71.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd1…c349backed Yes43c70.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No64c66.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968d…1307backed Yes39c64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes22c59.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…9ba8backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No61c53.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad0…2a03backed No73c53.31$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed7…ef6dbacked No55c52.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86eb…5864backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c0…2ba7backed No64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes30c46.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.915211.5%6 W · 46 L-11.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9370…8adabacked Yes38c43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…a343backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes36c39.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes32c39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.631136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No59c37.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.28540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes30c36.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…cee9backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed Yes39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+335.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9362…d450backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…6048backed Yes46c29.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b4e…6516backed Yes46c28.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No57c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No62c20.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…bc25backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.