China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dc25e6569aaf980f2ba0972fbb3cd862c22c6dad363b1e0cb150e6250fc480f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 8,253$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.9 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 7,475$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.31 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 4c | 1,797$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 6c | 1,560$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 10c | 1,177$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,126$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,049$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 776.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 10c | 713.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad03…9bcabacked Yes | 11c | 708.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 9c | 705.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 623.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 4c | 420$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1a…240fbacked Yes | 7c | 254$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…8363backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 162.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…4623backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 89.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.