Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b3fd2a82fe691567dfb2eac28252617c25932041358cd1db5e163d68fb8530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 40c | 1,214$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.34 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…078abacked Yes | 48c | 798.93$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.49 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 50c | 774$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.49 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked No | 52c | 491.93$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 56c | 350.14$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 36c | 322.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 53c | 238.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 74c | 220$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 42c | 161$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 52c | 117.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 28c | 99.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…6510backed Yes | 75c | 93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 41c | 81.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 35c | 78.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 69.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 68.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 38c | 55.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 43.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 39c | 31.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 31.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 31.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 29.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 43c | 24.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 56c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…69d3backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…5590backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 56c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.