Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b9ad86669595b6c15882d154ce7917a6cebfea4f7560a5f0d74bbdaa22e10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 39c | 816.22$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.32 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 29c | 513.02$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 60c | 403.76$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.98 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…17e5backed Yes | 48c | 277.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…6510backed Yes | 66c | 151.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed Yes | 48c | 139.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 138.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 65c | 104.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…91e9backed Yes | 49c | 102.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…0590backed Yes | 39c | 94.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 88.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 37c | 84.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 32c | 73.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 68.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 54c | 63.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 63.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked Yes | 32c | 55.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 45.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 60c | 38.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 69c | 34.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 31.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 25.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 57c | 24.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cf…8a72backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.