Music · resolved market
Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e016a2fabb25eb4a41cecbd1f32a6516a16a27d6f9df3a5b04ec918e23b14ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 9c | 676.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…22f0backed Yes | 18c | 453.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 12c | 435.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 75c | 123.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +12.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 36c | 92.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 77c | 56.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…86a3backed Yes | 30c | 33.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…25f3backed No | 79c | 32.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +61%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?this page
- Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.