Music · resolved market
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb7e9647a231ef7bb5102c7959af45984a0c2e03891acccb819fdb9313781989
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4001…5010backed No | 9c | 1,169$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 3c | 967.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 50c | 705$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 50c | 621.79$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.9 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 12c | 501.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…86a3backed No | 10c | 351.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 18c | 328.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 22c | 159$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 16c | 153.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 19c | 146.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 10c | 143.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 101.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 392 | 16.1%63 W · 329 L | -44.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…9894backed No | 14c | 92.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…5f6abacked No | 15c | 86.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 22c | 81.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 233 | 39.5%92 W · 141 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 80c | 63.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 19c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 23c | 54.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +12.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song this week?this page
- Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.