Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052b44c8e530816adef21cec95770612330b1cd5a57e0ceb187024a1950b6f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe45d…230dbacked Yes | 30c | 4,399$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,504$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.09 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 24c | 2,100$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.59 | 283 | 32.5%92 W · 191 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 2,087$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.59 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 71c | 1,410$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.51 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 29c | 1,334$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.39 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Yes | 29c | 682.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 26c | 588.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.08 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 72c | 522.68$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 325.83$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.26 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 264$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.65 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 24c | 227.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 75c | 195.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 75c | 170$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 76c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 49c | 87.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…2c78backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 70c | 56.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 30c | 50.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…12b2backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 48.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 46.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 735 | 38.6%284 W · 451 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 57c | 36.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 71c | 35.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 71c | 33.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 74c | 32.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 64c | 31.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 76c | 29.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 73c | 25.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 70c | 25.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked No | 77c | 20.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…307abacked No | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…3566backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.