Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c39ea7f2c6d58c073bcd455eb73339ccc13b4b3bbe167505a8f8a2fea247bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed No | 67c | 14,842$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.97 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 14c | 4,300$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…8438backed Yes | 13c | 3,077$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Yes | 33c | 2,873$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 2,422$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.22 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,735$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 1,661$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.1 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 32c | 1,562$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe66…a284backed Yes | 36c | 1,042$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 1,039$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 33c | 999.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 928.47$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.75 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 32c | 506.65$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 9c | 360$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 34c | 299.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 17c | 294.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 34c | 275.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed Yes | 33c | 249.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 65c | 226.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…6748backed Yes | 12c | 215.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 35c | 208.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 197.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 80c | 195.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Yes | 34c | 187.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed No | 67c | 148.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Yes | 37c | 103.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 31c | 99.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 33c | 87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 65c | 71.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…ccbabacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…d6debacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 65c | 48.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 65c | 47.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 66c | 43.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 26c | 43.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 33c | 37.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 35c | 34.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 66c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked No | 65c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…3a9cbacked No | 66c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed No | 65c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 70c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 65c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed No | 65c | 15.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.