Dota2 · resolved market
Team Falcons to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x999a371c5bd616787ea1f4c6b3cd7452f9326364ccf8a9d098a29bade1069f96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed No | 61c | 799.98$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.99 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 45c | 738.23$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.27 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 56c | 720.45$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.06 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Yes | 70c | 518.41$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…53d1backed Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…701ebacked Yes | 40c | 364.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.52 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 20c | 262.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 42c | 254.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 58c | 243.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 60c | 237.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 39c | 215.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.38 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…111abacked Yes | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 59c | 182.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 35c | 105.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed No | 28c | 91.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 90.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 45c | 78.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 72.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e4…b94fbacked Yes | 68c | 68.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…dc24backed No | 44c | 63.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…b55cbacked Yes | 43c | 60.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 66c | 50.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…b815backed Yes | 61c | 45.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 48c | 31.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054e…51bdbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 26.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 59c | 25.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 24.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 22.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…841ebacked Yes | 68c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…6237backed Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Falcons to win 2-0?this page
- 1win to win 2-0?No won
- Team Falcons vs 1win: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.