Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-08-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a965ee53a67bc0a4d528d2cf17716acdf0e9760c57eb6f15c9f752a38e24a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b1…f737backed No | 60c | 7,006$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,826.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 4,699$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.69 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 59c | 2,807$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.92 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 5c | 2,644$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.49 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 40c | 2,110$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.09 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 40c | 1,668$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.94 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…00f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,516$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Yes | 4c | 1,513$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 1,324$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.84 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked No | 59c | 1,000$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 5c | 823.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 40c | 803.43$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.72 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 515.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.78 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked No | 59c | 502.37$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 415.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 5c | 322$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 30c | 281.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 13c | 249.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 41c | 241.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 9c | 222.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 60c | 186.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Yes | 41c | 176.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 40c | 157$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 41c | 141.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 28c | 124$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 34c | 114.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 41c | 111.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…3e21backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 63c | 98.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 44c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 41c | 86.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Yes | 41c | 78.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 77.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked No | 56c | 74.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 39c | 59.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 62c | 59.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 80c | 50.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 41c | 50.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked No | 59c | 50.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…8b00backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yes | 31c | 49.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…03bbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 52c | 47.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 50c | 42.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 61c | 41.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 65c | 33.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 60c | 29.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 55c | 27.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Yes | 40c | 24.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 58c | 23.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed No | 58c | 22.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-08-19?this page
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-19?No won
- Will Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.