Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c822d470b99be35f09eedd8356a49bcaf0f8c43656cc7c6462c9949b848714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 20c | 3,217$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.25 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,355$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.79 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 26c | 884.62$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.62 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 868.88$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.97 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 78c | 395.01$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.25 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 11c | 386.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.28 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 9c | 286.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.11 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 36c | 278$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 26c | 257.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 74c | 200.36$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 77c | 190.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 26c | 175$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 12c | 129.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 66c | 116.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 22c | 110.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…8efdbacked Yes | 80c | 104.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 28c | 97.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 76c | 92.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 18c | 67.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 34c | 39.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 78c | 29.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…be9ebacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a2c5backed No | 44c | 23.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-19?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.