Tweets · resolved market
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc79d1b4be189b7f01c8f4b0fc78f93c50af60c1d353a03bc6e98d0634aad8ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 58c | 2,361$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.7 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 774.61$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.08 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 363.47$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…63afbacked Yes | 42c | 317.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 60c | 309.4$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.79 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 258.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 255.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 44c | 196$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 194.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 48c | 163.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 20c | 147.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 147$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 124.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 15c | 123.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 26c | 123$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 50c | 116$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 58cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 109.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 16c | 106.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 106.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…a079backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 95.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 43c | 80.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…ee76backed Yes | 29c | 75.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 48c | 62.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 56.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1d04backed No | 59c | 51.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…ccc5backed No | 59c | 51.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 45c | 48.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…6a52backed Yes | 50c | 47.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 30c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed No | 40c | 42.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…c2a8backed No | 31c | 38.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 46c | 37.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 36.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…6373backed Yes | 29c | 34.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 69c | 30.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 29.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 52c | 29.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…16dfbacked Yes | 53c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 59c | 23.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 67c | 17.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will White House post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.