Tweets · resolved market
Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0397f85900328ef57e903018ae40a99fd27b0668375a957ba8bde98883d76ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,704$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.7 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 24c | 2,525$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.34 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 27c | 878.7$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.44 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 11c | 864.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…ee76backed Yes | 7c | 841.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 6c | 717.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 7c | 555.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…ad95backed Yes | 7c | 444.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 68c | 369.31$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 4c | 312.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 14c | 261.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 243.39$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Yes | 4c | 235$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…8a2fbacked Yes | 6c | 203.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 190.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 173.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 75c | 138.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 137.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 11c | 95.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes | 49c | 94.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 23c | 85.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…c35abacked Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 24c | 42.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed Yes | 24c | 41.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 40.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 77c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will White House post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.