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Movies · resolved market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7056…c95cbacked Yes28c6,389$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,583.723262.5%20 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+73.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes45c5,967$2,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,295.1930523%70 W · 235 L-1.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes52c2,348$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.8533039.1%129 W · 201 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes74c2,019$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4219347.2%91 W · 102 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No45c1,828$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.759125.3%23 W · 68 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No50c1,754$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.461741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa156…cf02backed Yes62c1,298$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes49c978.54$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.3930436.2%110 W · 194 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3960…ea33backed No36c953.41$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No58c882.33$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.4313123.7%31 W · 100 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes68c847.92$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.158947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No64c821.95$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.142142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No54c808.03$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.151338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes65c804.61$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.7715358.8%90 W · 63 L+19.6wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+23.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c691$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.05944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No38c686.69$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26413142.7%56 W · 75 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No48c671.76$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-48.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c560.6$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5317837.6%67 W · 111 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No34c548.96$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.727634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes47c506.23$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.0524821.8%54 W · 194 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No57c419.72$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6712030.8%37 W · 83 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No27c398.67$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.853658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No35c385.81$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.813946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes45c376.49$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.793928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes55c375$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.751346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c355.41$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.885540%22 W · 33 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c344$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5811245.5%51 W · 61 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No26c342$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4911040.9%45 W · 65 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c317.79$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5711236.6%41 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No38c311.19$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.793548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes69c309.52$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9514136.2%51 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No30c305.42$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe055…0f96backed Yes54c300$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.331040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No25c288.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.153748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c285$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.255747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No29c279.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.874710.6%5 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-73.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes46c273.47$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…6807backed Yes48c265$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9842…5ac8backed Yes37c250$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.52729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…b1debacked Yes37c238.97$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.42977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+68.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No23c236.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.754252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No31c235.58$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.274143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes41c227.6$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0615749%77 W · 80 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed Yes72c221.89$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.532450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes79c212.1$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.276451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8148028.5%137 W · 343 L-33.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes51c198.12$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5220334%69 W · 134 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No13c185.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.611,4158%113 W · 1,302 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4609…2951backed Yes54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No34c183.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.093647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No46c175$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.39138.5%35 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes57c174.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.03955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes54c167.97$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.275429.6%16 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9832…6e4dbacked No65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked No66c151$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No40c141.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.344047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No47c125.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.673540%14 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes40c118.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.879262%57 W · 35 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No65c108$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.22138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes67c107.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.849334.4%32 W · 61 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Yes50c107$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.56100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed Yes28c102$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.663167.7%21 W · 10 L+7.7wins+0.25per pick43cpaid+49.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Yes72c101.35$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7914…8ba1backed No67c101.22$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No47c100.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0810914.7%16 W · 93 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.673043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632560%15 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x668b…8e86backed Yes27c99.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+82%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No38c99.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.143461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No41c90.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.883850%19 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes54c83.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…07a3backed Yes34c80.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.332828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed Yes78c76.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba9…2210backed Yes53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dba…fe39backed No47c71.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No28c66.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.76650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes50c66.22$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1530242.4%128 W · 174 L+21.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed Yes49c66.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c58.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9110751.4%55 W · 52 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No26c56.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3610941.3%45 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-27%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed No64c50.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.273959%23 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No36c50.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.831936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x099e…8201backed No23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4467…cbfcbacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No37c49.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.134045%18 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2f…cf83backed No56c46.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes57c44.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6169…a255backed Yes49c40.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Yes65c35.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.15944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9202…dde4backed Yes61c34.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No47c33.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.531,22317.8%218 W · 1,005 L-125.3wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c33.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1588533.6%297 W · 588 L-76.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No53c32.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99b0…1d6bbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3344…56c4backed No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.33444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.