Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99771901bdb65bf7832cbf4cf447e9707c9c119fd7c8cdee29bf3fdf2243032f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 28c | 6,389$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,583.72 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 45c | 5,967$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,295.19 | 305 | 23%70 W · 235 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 52c | 2,348$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.85 | 330 | 39.1%129 W · 201 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 74c | 2,019$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.42 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 1,828$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.75 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 1,754$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed Yes | 62c | 1,298$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 49c | 978.54$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.39 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…ea33backed No | 36c | 953.41$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 58c | 882.33$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.43 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 68c | 847.92$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 821.95$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 54c | 808.03$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 65c | 804.61$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.77 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +19.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 691$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 686.69$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 48c | 671.76$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 560.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 548.96$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.72 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 47c | 506.23$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.05 | 248 | 21.8%54 W · 194 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 419.72$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.67 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 398.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 385.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 45c | 376.49$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.79 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 55c | 375$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 355.41$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 344$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 26c | 342$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 317.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 112 | 36.6%41 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 311.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 69c | 309.52$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 30c | 305.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…0f96backed Yes | 54c | 300$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 288.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 285$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 29c | 279.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 46c | 273.47$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…6807backed Yes | 48c | 265$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…b1debacked Yes | 37c | 238.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 23c | 236.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 235.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 41c | 227.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 72c | 221.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 79c | 212.1$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 51c | 198.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 203 | 34%69 W · 134 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 185.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4609…2951backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 183.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 175$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 57c | 174.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 54c | 167.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…3a8abacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 141.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 125.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 40c | 118.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 65c | 108$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 67c | 107.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 50c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 28c | 102$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 72c | 101.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed No | 67c | 101.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 47c | 100.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8e86backed Yes | 27c | 99.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +82%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 99.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 90.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 54c | 83.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 34c | 80.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed Yes | 78c | 76.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…fe39backed No | 47c | 71.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 28c | 66.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 50c | 66.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Yes | 49c | 66.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 58.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 56.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 64c | 50.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 36c | 50.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8201backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…cbfcbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 49.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…cf83backed No | 56c | 46.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 57c | 44.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6169…a255backed Yes | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Yes | 65c | 35.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…dde4backed Yes | 61c | 34.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 33.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,223 | 17.8%218 W · 1,005 L | -125.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 33.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 53c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…1d6bbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 44m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 41m and 44m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.