Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd797250ca02fea25e4e2c8881e2891475611fd51dca8e06400503cedb6be7a54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 6,432$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 27c | 2,999$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.56 | 305 | 23%70 W · 235 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 66c | 1,779$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.95 | 330 | 39.1%129 W · 201 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 1,709$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.3 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 20c | 1,300$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,141$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.23 | 248 | 21.8%54 W · 194 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 66c | 1,123$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.58 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 58c | 1,107$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…0f96backed Yes | 38c | 1,067$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 1,026$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.33 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +19.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 28c | 999.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 68c | 995.71$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.3 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 886.78$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 708$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 57c | 671.76$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 36c | 664.43$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 641.64$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.07 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 569.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.9 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 517.47$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 489.6$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 486.63$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 38c | 455.77$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 415.81$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.98 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 47c | 407.76$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.16 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes | 26c | 380$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 40c | 358.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.47 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 304.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 49c | 299.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 42c | 289$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 34c | 269.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…d3a6backed Yes | 37c | 238.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 228.49$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 221.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 216.87$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 112 | 36.6%41 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 201.42$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 25c | 195$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 177.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 153.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed Yes | 22c | 139.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 10c | 138.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 148 | 30.4%45 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 122.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 121.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 14c | 115.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked No | 58c | 108.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 95.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 83.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…0dd1backed Yes | 65c | 82.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 44c | 82.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 75.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 64c | 63.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 61.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 55.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 50.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 235 | 30.6%72 W · 163 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 48c | 50.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Yes | 51c | 50.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 32c | 48.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 39.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,223 | 17.8%218 W · 1,005 L | -125.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 43c | 34.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 59c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…dde4backed Yes | 76c | 26.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 72c | 20.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 114 | 85.1%97 W · 17 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes | 62c | 17.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 44m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?Yes won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 41m and 44m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.