Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 41m and 44m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc79f7353048a5c5d94fb3cecb600f97a2da5f7d47cc7d5fe8e8ea1be1c5df0f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,936$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 9c | 1,460$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,237$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 305 | 23%70 W · 235 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,097$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 248 | 21.8%54 W · 194 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +19.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 3c | 538.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…ea33backed Yes | 5c | 415.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 9c | 407.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 11c | 340.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 203 | 34%69 W · 134 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 4c | 329.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 6c | 253.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 222.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…0f96backed Yes | 5c | 200.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 17c | 169.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked Yes | 10c | 159.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 41m and 44m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 44m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?Yes won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.