Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5368b07f9e5686dded99316ca91030cd0d51787997867bb7c5b153a1defa571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 76c | 15,327$11,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.47 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 24c | 14,995$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,598.71 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 9,089$6,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.59 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Yes | 24c | 5,571$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 65c | 3,294$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.06 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 11c | 2,922$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 2,918$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.13 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 34c | 2,847$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.05 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 2,642$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.14 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 24c | 1,727$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.58 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 17c | 1,598$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.38 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 1,439$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.36 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 18c | 1,362$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.81 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 1,275$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.92 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed No | 37c | 816$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.65 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Yes | 59c | 681.9$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 25c | 593.54$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…b81dbacked Yes | 44c | 567.73$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 66c | 531.67$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 30c | 500.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed No | 71c | 485.3$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.14 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 466.73$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 79c | 312.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Yes | 38c | 302.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 32c | 264.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…18cdbacked Yes | 46c | 210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 33c | 196.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 78c | 184.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked No | 67c | 183.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 63c | 181$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 77c | 124.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 77c | 110.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 13c | 99.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked No | 79c | 96.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…2f94backed Yes | 24c | 84.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…236dbacked No | 67c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 24c | 67.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 73c | 65.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 75c | 61.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed No | 59c | 60.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 63c | 56.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 34c | 56.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…d0abbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 24c | 44.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 43c | 39.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 76c | 32.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 76c | 28.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 67c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 61c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 76c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-01?Yes won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.