Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9546bdc9fb6841c88da64ec3f7db80c4c075f921328042b8a550c47579be779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 7c | 3,426$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.83 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 5c | 3,278$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 6c | 2,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 18c | 1,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 15c | 886.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked No | 6c | 782.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 9c | 567.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 21c | 418.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 8c | 402.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 309.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 6c | 233.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 7c | 227.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked No | 22c | 209$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 10c | 207.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4474…876ebacked No | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 12c | 192$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 181.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 24c | 176.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 165.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 7c | 158.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed No | 9c | 154.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 76c | 153.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 146.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 9c | 139.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 11c | 127.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 11c | 126.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 125$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 78c | 119.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 109.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 10c | 104.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6169…a255backed No | 14c | 101.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 87.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 60.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8f…1de7backed No | 22c | 47.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 23c | 44.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 41.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 71c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 77c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 72m and 79m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.