Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0760c10c6fe831615c21971e5d3be46e2f8196423ccb4e2ed0303e777afb6fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 25c | 6,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 75c | 4,827$3,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.72 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 76c | 3,450$2,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.81 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 24c | 3,361$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.66 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 2,829$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.19 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 8c | 1,388$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 953.69$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.4 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 679.01$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.73 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 18c | 513.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 380.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 9c | 342.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 4c | 311.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 258.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 16c | 215.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 75c | 186.38$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed No | 79c | 172.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 19c | 110.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 18c | 109.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 13c | 100.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 19c | 60.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 44.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 26c | 44.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 39.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 75c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 78c | 23.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.