Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5086a7916a3b9e16160304bc1af32d19f4e4cd6d536de01aeb67fe64ca8df58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 77c | 6,767$5,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.64 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 23c | 6,093$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.76 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 2,519$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.26 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 2,016$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.03 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Yes | 25c | 2,010$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.4 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 16c | 1,532$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.23 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 13c | 1,455$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 79c | 1,389$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.39 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 16c | 1,177$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 19c | 1,090$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.13 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,051$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.75 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 998.8$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.16 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 859.19$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 46c | 828.22$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.34 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 25c | 646$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 22c | 624.07$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…8284backed No | 75c | 520$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Yes | 25c | 475.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 54c | 449$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.24 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 25c | 444.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 23c | 392.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 15c | 369.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 52c | 354.32$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.29 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked No | 78c | 331$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 285$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 39c | 247.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 25c | 247.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…dc9fbacked Yes | 10c | 233.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 24c | 229.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 26c | 183.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 50c | 167.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 55c | 150.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 61c | 147.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 25c | 147.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 29c | 139.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 21c | 135.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 129$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Yes | 35c | 123.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 17c | 116.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 22c | 109.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 63c | 98.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 78c | 96.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 27c | 83.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 39c | 83.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 76c | 82.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked No | 78c | 81.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 78.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 24c | 62.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…327dbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 57.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 54.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 54.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 76c | 39.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 78c | 38.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 34.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 34.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked No | 41c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 76c | 30.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 62c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 80c | 17.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?this page
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.