TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$571,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$590,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $571,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed Yes41c428,046$175,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252,430.584261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No57c179,218$102,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,909.291,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No59c80,024$46,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,831.563,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed No58c22,449$13,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,061.9912951.2%66 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No60c20,662$12,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,429.2112654%68 W · 58 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No29c18,682$5,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.791,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No60c16,200$9,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7201,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No59c15,862$9,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,410.1497146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No58c7,617$4,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,417.8626345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed No60c7,560$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.656250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No64c7,379$4,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,756.598945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed No17c7,035$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.116339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No75c5,673$4,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,269.3627058.9%159 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Yes42c4,354$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.062755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed No58c4,326$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.0423858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked No23c4,287$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes19c3,807$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.5699340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9532…0af8backed No60c3,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed No59c3,305$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.1220043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No60c3,032$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.9170249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27e4…4803backed No59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed No59c2,927$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.791330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No58c2,595$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.818456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked No60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Yes41c2,500$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.973751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed No59c2,185$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.889345.2%42 W · 51 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes79c2,175$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.5935247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda17…9b48backed No77c2,100$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaca…f5d5backed No59c2,071$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.265154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Yes42c2,060$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.641957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1801656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18011854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2203141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked No60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20017258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2204334.9%15 W · 28 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed No59c1,613$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.6410257.8%59 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed No60c1,568$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.89457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed No59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8852650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked No58c1,500$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87014652.1%76 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed Yes77c1,426$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.123938.5%15 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+197%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98eb…8c14backed No59c1,275$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No60c1,262$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.519944.4%44 W · 55 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed No60c1,250$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7509854.1%53 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No60c1,250$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.9372850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No58c1,241$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No59c1,165$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.4837649.7%187 W · 189 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed No59c1,136$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.127256.9%41 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed No60c1,096$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.141844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No60c1,079$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.639268.5%63 W · 29 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked No58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5803234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked No61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6103441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed No60c912.86$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.725558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Yes58c908.35$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.845954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No59c905$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.6613948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No58c894.41$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.763751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c5b…54f5backed Yes21c879.62$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.91650%8 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No62c867.09$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.5968150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No59c862$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.6833346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed No59c797.05$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.4914957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes69c795.83$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.7110840.7%44 W · 64 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes62c784.66$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.5452639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No12c750$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2513228.8%38 W · 94 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca28…54a7backed Yes80c734.96$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No59c699.68$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.1135149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes38c665$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.7832848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed No59c633.56$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9812850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No60c631.36$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.2510042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes10c630.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.3938246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No59c628$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4255750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc303…8129backed No59c625.61$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No60c623$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3868550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No60c623$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3891553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed No58c614.69$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.134050%20 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae5…7974backed No20c611.1$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.051080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+59.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c610.43$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.5773438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No60c600$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36015858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed No58c517$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked No59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2953647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked No61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed No61c491.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Yes80c446.07$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2116657.2%95 W · 71 L+12.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Yes42c440.48$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.484555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No62c403.22$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012146.3%56 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24014359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No18c382.89$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1871443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No33c364.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.479540%38 W · 57 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed No59c345.63$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.111450%7 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No67c342.13$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.071,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed No59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed No60c323.53$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.499654.2%52 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed No61c303.85$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.854245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed No59c298.68$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7112356.9%70 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked No58c276$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0852923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked No59c254.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.024850%24 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes31c232.38$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6944447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes10c216.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8687154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b32…3566backed No59c208$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.