Asian League · resolved market
Will Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a9f122eee1014267929e404d9aab48902b7d51809d50e0954109c1b274e0bbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe45d…230dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,500$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 62c | 1,917$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.26 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 45c | 1,690$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.62 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 55c | 1,382$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.65 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 1,063$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.64 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 863.51$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.3 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.67 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 39c | 652.06$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.66 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 485.63$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.94 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 473.17$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.82 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 38c | 444.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.94 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 13c | 293.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.09 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…dc59backed No | 25c | 266.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 219.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 176$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 176$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 55c | 160.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 75c | 133.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 75c | 133.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +17.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 130.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 30c | 111$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 74c | 89.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 72c | 48.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 79c | 30.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 66c | 28.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 69c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 54c | 25.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 54c | 24.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 69c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 61c | 23.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 71c | 18.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 68c | 17.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 66c | 17.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.