Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4cea728fa3ed3d98dd48a687f57c1570f62d9dc01664f5d0b83397334e7c6f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Yes | 37c | 7,256$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.81 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 63c | 6,206$3,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.87 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 25c | 4,835$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.07 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Yes | 78c | 3,205$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 54c | 2,364$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.58 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 33c | 2,306$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.51 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 46c | 2,068$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.67 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 1,768$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.76 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 46c | 1,660$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.63 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 33c | 1,655$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.96 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 75c | 810$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…dc59backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes | 66c | 757.63$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.04 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 32c | 625.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 51c | 520.82$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.62 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed No | 49c | 504.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.11 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 71c | 445.2$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Yes | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Yes | 62c | 385.78$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.52 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked No | 39c | 362.95$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.65 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 333.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 77c | 324.67$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.63 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 68c | 266.16$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 38c | 230$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +17.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 37c | 227.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 222.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 43c | 203.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 47c | 201.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 59c | 182.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 63c | 170.31$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 70c | 170$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 36c | 167.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 66c | 160.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 27c | 144.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 72c | 111.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 35c | 99.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 53c | 98.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 31c | 97.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 36c | 95.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…2c16backed No | 42c | 94.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 93.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 71c | 90.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 43c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 57c | 82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 75c | 72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes | 75c | 65.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Yes | 31c | 62.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Yes | 75c | 57.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 32c | 53.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 59c | 46.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 76c | 45.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Yes | 75c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Yes | 33c | 37.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…d4c6backed Yes | 66c | 37.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked No | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 68c | 32.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Yes | 64c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 69c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 75c | 26.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 70c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.