South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bcfaa477e0007a09b9e0f045b3c2c5e455be1768e49f245643df019ed1846ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed No | 53c | 4,396$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.22 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 37c | 3,846$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.89 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…0e8fbacked No | 79c | 3,490$2,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 3,387$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 38c | 3,102$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.46 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes | 46c | 2,929$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.02 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 40c | 1,513$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.76 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,462$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.02 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 72c | 1,458$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.31 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,420$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 1,403$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.41 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 21c | 999.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 56c | 929$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.16 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 59c | 894.22$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.52 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 79c | 882$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.22 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 60c | 868.39$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 730.82$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.47 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 38c | 727.23$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.23 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 77c | 700$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.49 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 636.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 42c | 504.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.66 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 61c | 493.96$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.29 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked No | 55c | 463.06$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 67c | 425$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 30c | 404.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 12c | 386.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 16c | 368.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 62c | 306.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 54c | 289.86$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 48c | 288.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…f9ebbacked Yes | 16c | 251.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 249.31$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 62c | 246.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 74c | 235$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 54c | 223.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 21c | 222.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 44c | 220$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd494…bfafbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…217abacked Yes | 15c | 178$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 54c | 156$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 21c | 133.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 38c | 119.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…fcbbbacked No | 61c | 118.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 55c | 99.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 74c | 88.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 21c | 70.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked No | 53c | 68.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 44c | 65.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…b01fbacked No | 55c | 60.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 21c | 58.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…8efdbacked Yes | 24c | 51.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 28c | 50.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed No | 71c | 44.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 35.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…fa76backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 59c | 33.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 79c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-08-18?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-08-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.