Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99480914d90ec2f5c2110c38601ed15514b8bc2c7e256522ba250396f888d741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff94…8c4bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,628$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked No | 61c | 5,501$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.92 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 3,682$2,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.55 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 46c | 3,178$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.92 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked No | 43c | 2,200$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 1,597$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.06 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Yes | 20c | 1,524$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,448$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573a…dcbfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 24c | 1,167$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Yes | 31c | 1,081$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 986.83$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.62 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 76c | 983.95$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.95 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 19c | 800.72$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 78c | 737.53$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.15 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 32c | 657.43$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.8 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 75c | 647.71$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 637.51$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 598.42$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 40c | 583.95$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Yes | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 45c | 475$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.25 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 75c | 398.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 76c | 385$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 35c | 307.11$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 69c | 258.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 13c | 241.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 13c | 234.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 71c | 222.27$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…1e4bbacked Yes | 29c | 214.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 64c | 209.54$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…9c34backed Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 24c | 174$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 161.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 24c | 158$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…4501backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 149.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 142$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Yes | 40c | 121.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…63c4backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 35c | 107.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 27c | 103.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 25c | 101.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 77c | 96.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 71c | 90.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 89.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Yes | 20c | 73.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed No | 66c | 68.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…b3a6backed Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 60.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 53c | 59.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 69c | 57.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…daa2backed Yes | 35c | 53.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…6700backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…c07abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 42.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…a3fbbacked Yes | 40c | 42.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a07…b1f9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…c50bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed No | 75c | 33.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed No | 64c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…b8edbacked No | 74c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.