Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab84d732d8153ad38a0a194b1babc4025f9d78f87c434ec6f9385ce41f20b21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 20c | 686.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.51 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…41acbacked Yes | 43c | 523.21$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…79e0backed Yes | 46c | 460.91$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 23c | 372.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.48 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 206.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 158.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 80c | 140.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 139.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…a097backed No | 71c | 139$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 49c | 121.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 120.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 45c | 111.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 84.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…91c5backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 24c | 75.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…30f2backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…369cbacked No | 52c | 70.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 26c | 66.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 23c | 62.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 38c | 51.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 55c | 45.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 57c | 42.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 40c | 41.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 30c | 40.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 57c | 40.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…cca1backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf866…00d3backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 35c | 36.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a57…0358backed Yes | 50c | 36.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 60c | 36.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…5d02backed No | 65c | 35.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 46c | 31.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 60c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…852abacked No | 79c | 20.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…dc5ebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 78c | 17.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.