Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd44781246894021c02d38e8b2a2b17290f585629901bc4bac550cbc89d6662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…83e7backed Yes | 25c | 537.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 49c | 250.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 25c | 174.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 41c | 159.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 20c | 152.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 14c | 135.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 53c | 128.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 47c | 124$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed Yes | 46c | 107.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0e…6536backed Yes | 17c | 80.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…b108backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 32c | 78.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…30f2backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked Yes | 22c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 31c | 60.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 77c | 41.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…6c79backed No | 76c | 36.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0755…4b83backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…4ecfbacked No | 58c | 21.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…516bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…83e1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 76c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.