Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Noah FA vs. FC Sion end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb81102e7dbd746e8d56e589f4647b60cee58508e7dd829e962659038826fd384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 25c | 4,099$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.89 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 69c | 2,164$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.38 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 62c | 1,000$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.01 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 775.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.81 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 659.26$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.45 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes | 29c | 473.81$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 71c | 371.18$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.08 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 358.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.61 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked No | 12c | 199.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 24c | 180.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 15c | 153.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 47c | 138.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed No | 78c | 136$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 30c | 125.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 22c | 110.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 16c | 110.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 70c | 108.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Yes | 19c | 108.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 69c | 100.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 29c | 97.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 69c | 84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 72c | 69.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed No | 28c | 63.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…7ad0backed No | 57c | 57.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 59c | 36.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 72c | 34.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 73c | 33.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 27.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…38a6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 61c | 17.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noah FA vs. FC Sion end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Sion win on 2026-08-06?No won
- Will Noah FA win on 2026-08-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.