Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b60438b6b15a57c2fe99dbb515c9842927d581f63cd797a3412fe72b2f3a61d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 79c | 1,816$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.59 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed Yes | 14c | 1,457$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 25c | 1,349$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,310$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 44c | 1,030$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…41bbbacked Yes | 4c | 783.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 2c | 638.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…ca09backed Yes | 57c | 505.12$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 59c | 339.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 58c | 307.27$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 290.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 60c | 244.89$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 55c | 238.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 194.95$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 54c | 185.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 39c | 165.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed No | 71c | 140.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 119.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 50c | 96.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 88.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 73.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 41c | 68.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…ff4bbacked No | 30c | 64.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 53c | 52.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 35c | 47.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 42c | 42.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 41c | 42.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 36.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 33.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…0de0backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…215cbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 41c | 28.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…b64dbacked No | 49c | 27.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…2aadbacked Yes | 54c | 24.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed No | 46c | 23.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…7d02backed No | 63c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…3912backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.