Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de9a45c2641e3cf241b282030a7928ffa0b671563f693f0af8620032f875680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 8c | 902.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 26c | 875.47$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 77c | 578.91$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…3a18backed No | 11c | 547.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 27c | 456.71$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 4c | 422.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 20c | 380.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 18c | 328.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.62 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 36c | 310.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 254.47$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 240$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 11c | 237.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed No | 47c | 208.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 201.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.94 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…32a1backed No | 14c | 188.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 79c | 179$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 72c | 162.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…c3bcbacked Yes | 66c | 151.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 76c | 130.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 29c | 78.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 66c | 75.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 41c | 52.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…3912backed No | 58c | 49.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 32c | 46.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed Yes | 32c | 44.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 67c | 33.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 33.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…2103backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 75c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.