TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,333
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,333 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes40c10,894$4,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,484.9787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No30c10,506$3,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,132.922540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed Yes34c9,999$3,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,642.683246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes59c8,951$5,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,653.823946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No59c8,529$5,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,031.911457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes53c7,466$3,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,524.227156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9343…3f72backed Yes43c4,363$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.22911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4a…f91cbacked No63c3,950$2,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,486.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc250…8d6ebacked No76c2,015$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.275964.4%38 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes76c2,000$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked No48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick59cpaid-81.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x45fb…f1f6backed No76c1,577$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.151353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf30…8fbdbacked No53c1,321$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes17c1,318$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.9911328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb37b…5186backed No45c1,307$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.964032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41a9…0d8bbacked No57c1,228$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.613625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x807d…76dcbacked No38c1,059$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.914334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No66c887.94$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.424050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes35c806.65$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.3458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f9…060bbacked Yes66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes63c707.72$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.893630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No65c699.91$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.9440643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes15c678.65$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.161024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No47c590.89$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.465444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb202…e10fbacked Yes16c567.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.811020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e2…7893backed No62c499.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafb3…9a3cbacked No75c471.32$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf17a…7b1fbacked No64c448.43$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No75c446.84$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.96850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No7c436.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.922126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed No8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x897d…01cbbacked No12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-22.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed No8c399.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe58b…8649backed No60c378.93$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes56c376.23$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.348467.9%57 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes40c375$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd2…a384backed No59c361.61$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed Yes65c351.52$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6685…0622backed No31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes17c300$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24812012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes63c299.99$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc017…a219backed Yes67c284.25$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.05633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed No57c271.27$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.611330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes31c251.85$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.131323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd143…83ecbacked Yes46c239.48$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4810221.6%22 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes21c226.41$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.07454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed No56c218$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.783619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked No25c206$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked No8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7411533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…de4cbacked No53c199.97$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No65c194.83$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa251…505fbacked Yes53c190.85$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+75.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0813…5b41backed No53c188$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x301d…1e42backed Yes37c180.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed No26c180.49$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.494533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x154f…b99fbacked No73c178.08$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b1…d103backed No58c173.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ae…91c2backed Yes14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes61c142.35$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.656446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8461…b18fbacked No70c131.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050e…6f44backed No52c128.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4043…19cfbacked Yes17c124.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.743053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ed…fbddbacked No49c124.46$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.992560%15 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc5…3767backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f95…01a8backed Yes40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.841643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No43c115.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…7816backed No71c104.93$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.51656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fc…533fbacked Yes47c101.45$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7a…fdd0backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x02bb…cb45backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes34c99.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.993938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fdc…58e8backed No51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe21…eea8backed Yes40c95$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes36c93.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7828113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…3e6ebacked Yes44c92.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes53c90$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.311726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa949…dad8backed Yes36c86.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87d…8cafbacked No41c85.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x003b…d89bbacked No63c85.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes24c82.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6728021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.23339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cb4…0425backed Yes41c79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.941764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked Yes35c77.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.39964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x747c…bfb5backed No73c76.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No66c71.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.892360.9%14 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3603…b9b3backed No71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf94c…4484backed Yes50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.91338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb462…fc89backed No77c64.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.641163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes25c62.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.236613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7689…8ffebacked Yes37c62.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.381723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e16…0e72backed No61c61.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…4137backed Yes31c61.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+224%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes42c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.94358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes53c54.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6212259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf194…feaabacked No33c53.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.