Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aacdbed03d36f4d47c1ad42acd6b459f3a99c7fd1cfa0e9c385cb617dca244f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes | 16c | 17,375$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.11 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 6c | 10,480$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 3c | 7,739$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.04 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,020$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…14ebbacked Yes | 4c | 4,950$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 78c | 3,568$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.09 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 9c | 3,190$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.31 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 10c | 2,506$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.19 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc9…f150backed Yes | 5c | 2,486$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 4c | 2,480$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,172$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 6c | 1,900$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed Yes | 10c | 1,878$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 5c | 1,178$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 6c | 1,120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 22c | 1,052$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.09 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,014$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 18c | 970.18$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…7d2abacked Yes | 5c | 939.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 7c | 839.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e5…d08ebacked Yes | 12c | 804.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…91c8backed Yes | 14c | 758.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 7c | 757.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 7c | 719.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 24c | 694.13$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed No | 78c | 638.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 580.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…0f22backed Yes | 14c | 547.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 21c | 545.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 5c | 510.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 4c | 505$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 26c | 384.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…b938backed Yes | 23c | 336.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…473ebacked Yes | 17c | 321.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…2381backed Yes | 15c | 316.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 15c | 313.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 73c | 281.54$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a8f0backed Yes | 5c | 277.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 24c | 254.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 11c | 240.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…13d4backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…3fcdbacked Yes | 20c | 225.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 5c | 202.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed No | 70c | 199.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…8ffebacked Yes | 16c | 179.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3641…9590backed Yes | 8c | 170.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…147cbacked Yes | 30c | 143.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…0521backed Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe21…eea8backed Yes | 16c | 132.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Yes | 8c | 132$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70f…a153backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 14c | 117.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…42aabacked Yes | 15c | 116.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…c277backed Yes | 12c | 113.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 10c | 103.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbe…b9dcbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e16…0e72backed Yes | 17c | 96.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…06a0backed Yes | 18c | 74.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcc…92febacked Yes | 27c | 72.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 19c | 67.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…94b3backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 78c | 63.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 20c | 56.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…8213backed Yes | 20c | 53.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d81…33acbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…27bcbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked No | 74c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 11-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.