TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$211,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$232,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes2c76,402$1,394 inLost-$1,394.1620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c7,865$70 inLost-$701466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes1c6,394$34 inLost-$34240%0 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes4c4,120$170 inLost-$169.9290%0 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf07…1b86backed Yes9c3,688$332 inLost-$331.933141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes6c2,048$132 inLost-$131.651323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes6c1,482$94 inLost-$93.5358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb644…2925backed Yes3c1,326$40 inLost-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7410…04a3backed Yes3c1,212$40 inLost-$40258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes2c1,200$20 inLost-$20.4454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,190$16 inLost-$16.212126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe616…a30abacked Yes1c1,179$16 inLost-$15.7119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes2c1,080$22 inLost-$22.13994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes2c772.51$19 inLost-$18.721043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe893…4e83backed Yes4c750$32 inLost-$31.5150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7af5…d57abacked Yes4c694.45$26 inLost-$25.94185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-86.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2897…dc17backed Yes4c672.33$27 inLost-$26.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c514.32$11 inLost-$11.092270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9eb…e3e8backed Yes3c504.49$16 inLost-$15.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+75.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c0…0eecbacked Yes4c478$19 inLost-$19.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes6c470.6$29 inLost-$28.717156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes3c395.93$12 inLost-$11.8811328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd05f…e343backed Yes5c287.58$13 inLost-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710b…ce8fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d03…3a52backed Yes6c215$13 inLost-$12.91241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick11cpaid+238.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.