Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x783c532b1e72645617af0bc10d9f5ef17bcda9ce8c560337feb32a5e59b5a3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes | 21c | 33,999$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 1c | 15,814$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked No | 79c | 10,519$8,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.13 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 1c | 6,074$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,230$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 21c | 1,889$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 12c | 1,572$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed Yes | 25c | 1,523$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked No | 75c | 1,420$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 6c | 1,268$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…cfaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,113$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…5f49backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb462…fc89backed Yes | 11c | 999.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 2c | 898.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…7d2abacked Yes | 13c | 817.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb644…2925backed Yes | 6c | 667.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 566.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f41…46d4backed Yes | 2c | 476.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…ca59backed Yes | 8c | 473.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 9c | 469.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…83d3backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…52fabacked Yes | 17c | 368.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 9c | 318$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c4c0backed Yes | 5c | 293.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815d…8648backed Yes | 12c | 220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…8ffebacked Yes | 8c | 199.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a83…679cbacked Yes | 9c | 153.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…bfb5backed Yes | 18c | 137.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…501dbacked No | 76c | 106.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ef…0112backed No | 77c | 106.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 77c | 106.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed No | 77c | 96.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…b9b3backed No | 78c | 80.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 77c | 74.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked No | 77c | 74.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…b18fbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 76c | 61.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…cbf7backed Yes | 26c | 52.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…346ebacked Yes | 20c | 50.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked No | 76c | 34.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…5f3bbacked No | 77c | 27.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd686…b1edbacked No | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…8e46backed No | 75c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…5b5ebacked No | 78c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 11-17?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 11-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.