TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$291,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes1c35,328$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.27620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes2c20,936$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.191466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes3c10,991$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes29c8,996$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,622.2687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes1c7,200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9700…798fbacked Yes31c5,329$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No59c4,501$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,845.351457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes29c4,398$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.3758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ef…3116backed Yes1c4,139$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.18306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7749…a19fbacked Yes3c4,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf94c…4484backed No79c3,760$2,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.491338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e5…d08ebacked Yes3c3,707$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes10c3,021$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5313117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes7c2,905$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.351024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x815d…8648backed Yes15c2,500$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.921315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No75c2,499$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.8413770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c2,497$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes2c2,120$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.621483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56c…a440backed No69c2,111$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.341656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes12c1,887$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2928113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c56…46ccbacked Yes59c1,602$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes24c1,329$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.557156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x41a9…0d8bbacked No78c1,284$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.663625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes2c1,260$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.171043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c1,200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.22126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b5…d768backed Yes7c1,133$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.042321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No58c1,030$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.854050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes1c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2810…1131backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+147.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6685…0622backed No58c858.52$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.523148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…bfb5backed No72c832.53$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7410…04a3backed Yes17c823.53$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb37b…5186backed Yes31c715.94$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.964032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa772…05efbacked No64c668.05$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.053158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30cb…b901backed No58c609.04$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.711662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…7d2abacked Yes38c605.57$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.851618.8%3 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.31per pick50cpaid-69.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes8c579.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.416613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3451…a6e1backed Yes17c512.51$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe956…c4e0backed Yes34c399.95$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.98147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-89.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes30c375.39$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5711330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f61…d9d5backed No47c326.85$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes47c316.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7689…8ffebacked Yes28c302.96$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.661723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19f…cfaabacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb462…fc89backed Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaecd…27abbacked No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf30…8fbdbacked No76c269.48$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba8…92e9backed Yes16c241.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x743e…f405backed Yes43c234.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce7…0f6abacked No71c229.33$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e74…6d51backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50130%0 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked No45c224.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004827.1%13 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked No58c218.6$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.819964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7cdb…a128backed Yes13c208.46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes31c199.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.993844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No79c191.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0321651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x897d…01cbbacked No69c183.87$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-22.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x207c…52fabacked Yes38c168.4$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-88.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes45c166.6$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.971741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes6c159.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43514.3%5 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+112.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes23c157.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1711210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6c…e10dbacked Yes37c152.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.252450%12 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72e9…253bbacked Yes11c149.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f27…a764backed No69c130.39$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc107…f2cdbacked Yes11c123.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f3…f7e3backed Yes27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb35…501dbacked No60c110.94$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.231580%12 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23ef…0112backed No59c110.94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.96988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+42.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No49c102.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8610067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7968…e1b1backed Yes34c102.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3603…b9b3backed No49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a7…8213backed Yes23c100.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a7a…fdd0backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15eb…491cbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe8…5135backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa280…fbbabacked No52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked No63c90$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes33c86.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e3d…bd04backed No59c81.48$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.293762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No50c79.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.931323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1173…eb6ebacked No61c76.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.481650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd2…a384backed No66c75.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc044…2d08backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e16…0e72backed No63c74.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcadf…3245backed No69c73.75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cfa…9bb4backed No63c59.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes36c59.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.255444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ef…04b0backed No74c56.62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.73580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa758…444dbacked Yes22c52.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-75%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4659…4da9backed Yes28c46.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x628c…c651backed No56c46.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes43c44.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198467.9%57 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d45…25a3backed Yes32c44.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6119…346ebacked Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc643…1a02backed Yes37c40.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b8…0390backed Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.