Token Launches · resolved market
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60723981d8d9aa01e239ede9e83ca833eeca564cc73023e38af3a2e7872fcd2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeea…518abacked Yes | 69c | 3,799$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…db3dbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 25c | 1,900$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 23c | 1,785$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.57 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 6c | 1,539$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…38cbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,202$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…e145backed Yes | 7c | 747$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 28c | 707.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 37c | 650.91$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.69 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…259bbacked No | 19c | 510$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed Yes | 71c | 459$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 72c | 416.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f5d6backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…0c9abacked Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 56c | 291.67$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 50c | 290.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…190bbacked Yes | 27c | 274.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +298%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…4a6bbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 16cpaid | +387.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 64c | 219.59$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 215$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 207.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…0de9backed No | 60c | 207$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…ed29backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…502ebacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 29c | 198.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa693…2367backed No | 37c | 180$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…1993backed No | 32c | 176.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked No | 33c | 164.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 27c | 159.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 44c | 129.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 48c | 126.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…8dadbacked No | 27c | 85.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 70c | 78.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 70c | 77.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 45c | 76.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…eaf1backed No | 40c | 75.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…e4a5backed No | 77c | 66.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…4830backed No | 44c | 64.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 57c | 60.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6f…7d62backed No | 80c | 54.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…9294backed No | 76c | 54.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…b377backed No | 37c | 53.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…db64backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 43.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 28c | 40.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 39c | 37.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.