Token Launches · resolved market
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7887d9f46ddc07ce57a9070509a8dec881b6efc1211303c3fa18eb4c3729d9d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d37…b317backed No | 77c | 1,194$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 31c | 545.85$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.45 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 20c | 509.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 20c | 408.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 30c | 357.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.3 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 44c | 316.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…49c8backed No | 48c | 254.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f5d6backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…db3dbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 34c | 192$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked Yes | 28c | 190.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 61c | 163.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 42c | 128.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 112.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 59c | 108.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +316.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…2d23backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf857…47d8backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 30c | 83.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…118bbacked No | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 63c | 69.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 76c | 60.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked Yes | 19c | 58.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 65c | 56.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…230bbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 39c | 31.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 23.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 69c | 21.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.