Token Launches · resolved market
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88b7a1bdd9824f94bf4b425b69557ab9aa468f1959302a8b73de3e835d06ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 54c | 920.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 6c | 900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 603$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked No | 6c | 361.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…9294backed No | 63c | 257.8$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked No | 33c | 252.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked Yes | 37c | 219.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 20c | 177.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked No | 35c | 168.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 105.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…13cdbacked No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…06fcbacked No | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…6279backed Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b44…a270backed Yes | 39c | 51.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 56c | 51.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…c131backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 45c | 32.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 51c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…a140backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3f…7d4abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe92…4229backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 65c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.