TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa5ec…13cd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+110.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+101.5%+$40.58
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+100%+$20
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+69%+$138.08
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+67.8%+$27.13
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+225%+$45
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+1,150%+$230
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+212.5%+$21.25
Mavericks vs. Hornetsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Hawks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.9%+$18.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+84.9%+$84.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$30.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. Tennessee State Tigers: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colts sign Phillip Rivers?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.