NFL · resolved market
Will the Colts sign Phillip Rivers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62aec9f5100d40bbeeea57a44b8aea1070130524e26a19123d07fb02dda2be37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 11c | 3,001$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.96 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…e4fcbacked No | 33c | 705$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 2c | 652.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed No | 14c | 463.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 63c | 320$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…da1abacked Yes | 29c | 268.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed No | 71c | 249.44$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…21e3backed No | 7c | 165.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…837dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…bb18backed Yes | 70c | 97.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…c66fbacked Yes | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 61c | 88.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…13cdbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…4dd9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…393dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.